Title: Wizard of Lies
Rating: 4 Stars
I read Emily St John Mandel’s The Glass Hotel a couple of weeks ago (I wrote about it here). Among other things, one of the characters is a thinly fictionalized version of Bernie Madoff. I certainly remember the Madoff scandal. Other than newspaper accounts at the time, I realized that I didn’t know that much about the story, so I poked around and found The Wizard of Lies. It’s a deep dive into the whole Bernie Madoff saga.
Indeed the saga really is quite amazing. First of all, there’s the sheer size of it. There were paper losses of something like 65 billion dollars. In terms of actual cash lost (eg not phantom investment gains that were never real), it’s closer to 20 billion dollars. Amazingly enough, with dogged persistence, the lawyer assigned to the clean up mission ended up recovering / clawing back something close to 16 billion dollars.
Then there’s how long Madoff was able to sustain the con. He confessed to starting in the early 90s. It lasted until the financial panic of 2008. At that point, there was so much chaos going on in the investment community that he could no longer accommodate the redemption claims that were cascading down upon his fund. However, that is just what he confessed to. One of his co-conspirators, in court, admitted to starting sometime in the late 80s. Madoff started his investment career in 1962. Shortly thereafter, he found himself in a bad spot and needed an under the table infusion of cash from his father-in-law to survive. It can be argued that Madoff, in one form or another, engaged in fraud for a period of over 40 years.
Then there’s how simple it was. Starting in the early 90s (if not earlier), Madoff, widely acknowledged as a smart investor, simply stopped investing. Money flowed into his firm’s account and it just stayed there. Making money off brokerage fees (for trades that he did not make), he did do some high living. He was recognized for his charitable causes. He was generous with his family and employees. Essentially though, the large bulk of his money just sat in the account. During good times, when cash coming in dwarfed requested disbursements, the account grew in value to multiple billions of dollar. It just sat there.
A key figure is Frank DiPascali. Madoff hired DiPascali right out of high school. Over time, DiPascali became the man who covered Madoff’s tracks. He generated the statements showing fake trades. He generated false reports that were used to placate the early lackadaisical SEC investigations. He even figured out a way to simulate trades using multiple devices under his control.
It’s interesting to me how few people were involved in the scam. There was DiPascali. He worked with two software developers that, under DiPascali’s direction, wrote the programs that produced the false reports. There were three other back office staff that were arrested and convicted. All told, less than ten people were able to perpetuate a 65 billion dollar fraud.
The scandal showed the ugly sides of hedge fund management. Hedge funds are designed ostensibly for sophisticated investors. The joke on Wall Street is that the Madoff scandal proved that there are no sophisticated investors. Several hedge funds were created that advertised specific sophisticated trading strategies. Unbelievably, these hedge funds were nothing more than feeder funds to the Madoff investment fund (itself, just as a reminder, was nothing more than a Ponzi scheme). These hedge fund managers were quite literally doing nothing more than passing on their investors’ funds directly to Madoff. Keep in mind that, once in Madoff’s hands, they just sat in a banking account. These hedge fund managers would then charge their investors very high management fees for this service. They literally did nothing other than transfer funds from their account to Madoff’s account. Sadly, the people who invested in these funds, since they weren’t direct Madoff investors, were not part of the pool of people eligible for the Madoff fund recovery. They had to fight their hedge fund managers for any recovery of their investments. There were people that thought that they were diversifying by investing in different hedge funds and then found out, to their horror, that all of these funds were actually feeder funds to Madoff.
The wreckage from this debacle was huge. Thousands, if not tens of thousands of people, had taken their retirement funds that were built up from a lifetime of work (anywhere from $500,000 to $2,500,000 or so) and invested it all with Madoff, either knowingly or unknowingly (ie via one of the feeder funds). Madoff’s funds, for many years, was never a top performer but had the advantage of being incredibly consistent. For those in retirement, this consistency was its biggest selling point. One day, in early December of 2008, all of that money simply disappeared in a flash. People who had worked their entire lives for a comfortable retirement now only had social security. People lost houses. People had to move in with their children.
Many charities had their endowments with Madoff. Madoff’s extended family had all of their investments with him. Madoff’s friends and their friends invested everything as well. All was lost.
Fund managers committed suicide. One of Madoff’s sons (neither of whom were privy to their father’s scam) committed suicide. The other, a cancer survivor, succumbed a few short years after the scandal broke with a reoccurrence of the cancer, probably due to stress and shock.
In hind site, it seems so obvious. Madoff, in his discussions with clients and with the SEC, claimed to use a variety of sophisticated investment techniques. The problem is that none of the techniques that he allegedly used would bring about the metronome consistency of his returns, year after year.
There was a quant (a quantitative analyst) named Harry Markopolis that understood this. His specialty was exactly the types of investments that Madoff was allegedly making. He knew that it was mathematically impossible to generate the returns that Madoff claimed using these techniques. Years before the collapse, Markopolis talked to the SEC several different times and even tried to get the Wall Street Journal interested. It was all to no avail.
Markopolis suffered from I like to call the Asshole Cassandra complex. Cassandra, for those of you not up on your Greek mythology, had both a gift and a curse. Her gift was prophecy. Her curse was that no one would ever believe her prophecies. Her most famous one was when she tried to tell the Trojans that bringing in the Trojan Horse into their city walls was a really bad idea. Markopolis was a difficult man. He was insulting, abrasive, arrogant, and sexist. Also, being a quant (ie math geek), he would leap into deep technical arcana without trying to summarize in simpler terms. For all of this, his complaints were effectively ignored.
What kept this from being a five star review is something that eluded the author herself. Why? For a time, Madoff was a legitimate investor. His brokerage firm was ahead of its time in moving to computer trading. He was a chairman of NASDAQ.
Sure, in a panic, there’s a tendency to cheat, especially if you got away with it once before. However, very quickly Madoff’s failure became inevitable. He knew it yet he made no attempts to escape his fate. At any time he could have cashed out that account (he was essentially the sole proprietor), gathered up his family, and escaped to a country with no extradition treaty. Year after year, he continued to live the lie until it came crashing down like a tsunami upon him and everyone that he cared for.
It really is a compelling story. As someone who has worked his entire life and has built up a nest egg that I hope will take me through retirement, it’s a horrifying one as well. It really does make me question the entire investment house of cards that we all rely on so much and how fragile it seems to be.