Title: The Dead Hand
Rating: 4 Stars
For those of us alive and cognizant during The Cold War, it was a treacherous time. I remember thinking that I was going to see the end of the world. The US and the Soviet Union seemed locked in a struggle to the death. There were already several near misses. On both sides, their early warning system raised false alarms that nearly caused nuclear retaliation. I remember specifically the story of the US National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, being woken in the middle of the night with a phone call informing him that a massive Soviet attack was on the way. He specifically chose to not wake his wife up so that her last moments would be peaceful. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, a Soviet nuclear submarine, thinking that it was under attack, except for the pure chance that a superior officer was on board, would have launched its missiles, thus assuredly causing a massive nuclear war. Back in the days where there were only three television networks to choose from, ABC had a massive audience for the film The Day After, the story of a massive nuclear attack and its aftermath.
And then, just like that, it seemed, it was all over. The propped up charade of Soviet style communism collapsed. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989. Dictators like Ceaușescu in Romania were arrested and executed. The Soviet Union itself ceased to exist in 1991. It was breathtaking to watch.
For a time, it truly looked like we’d reached the end of history. Communism was dead. Democracy was spreading. The world had a bright future, with the US proudly showing the way.
Of course we were naive.
Although the book bounces around a bit, it tells the story primarily of the 1970s through the 1990s. The first part told the story of the destructive and irrational arms race. Starting in the mid 1980s, it dealt with the US and the Soviet Union stumbling towards some kind of arms control agreement, the fall of the Soviet states, and the chaotic aftermath of failed nuclear states.
It also talks about the seemingly paradoxical behavior of the Soviet Union aggressively trying to reduce its nuclear weapon arsenal while at the same time implementing an effort into research, design, and manufacture of a massive biological weapons program.
Especially after the election of Ronald Reagan, there was deep paranoia and misunderstanding on both sides. Reagan was convinced of the immorality of the Evil Empire. After the Soviets downed the Korean airliner, his paranoia only deepened. The Soviet leaders at the time, Andropov and later Chernenko, were stuck in the old Soviet ways and were both mentally and physically debilitated by age.
Reagan’s perspective began to change once he was exposed to the US nuclear war plans, the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP). It laid bare to Reagan, the eternal optimist, that nearly every option in the plan led to devastation.
It led him to ponder alternatives and ultimately led to him being seduced by the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Otherwise known as Star Wars, it envisioned a nuclear umbrella that would protect the entire world from ballistic missile attack. It’s a great idea. The only problem is that it’s impossible. It was especially impossible in the 1980s. Reagan was a man that never let facts and/or reality cloud his vision, so even though it was not technically feasible, it became the cornerstone of his nuclear plan.
Once Chernenko died, the Soviet leadership baton was passed to Mikhail Gorbachev. Relatively young and energetic, he willingly faced the problems that the Soviet Union was facing. The primary one was that its economy was collapsing. Note that it collapsing was in no way related to Reagan’s SDI (as I’ve heard said). In fact, since one of the things that they were really good at producing was ballistic missiles, their response would have been just to mass produce missiles and send them in a mass attack, overwhelming the SDI (a very effective strategy). It was collapsing because their markets were inefficient and the defense industry was consuming a huge percentage of it.
Reducing the defense industry footprint would be very helpful to the Soviet economy. In addition, as the new guy, he understood the folly of the US and the Soviets having tens of thousands of nuclear weapons pointed at each other, desperately hoping never to have to use them but spending billions and billions just in case they have to.
So, Reagan, shaken by fears of nuclear Armageddon, and Gorbachev, desperately trying to resurrect the Soviet economy, started stumbling towards a significant nuclear disarmament agreement. This culminated at the Reykjavik Summit in 1986. Working together, they came tantalizing close to an agreement that would have eliminated all nuclear weapons. The one sticking point was that Gorbachev required that SDI testing be limited to the laboratory for the next ten years. The Soviets, in their paranoia of the US, were convinced that the SDI program was a cover for the development of space weaponry.
Remember that SDI was technically impossible. In ten years, it might not have ever even made it out of the lab. In fact, it was cancelled in 1993. All Reagan had to do was to allow just a little bit of reality to enter his grand vision and acquiesce to including the word laboratory in the treaty. If he’d allowed that one word, the US and Soviet nuclear weapon arsenals could have been eliminated by 1996. Given their clout, that could have led to all nations renouncing their arsenal.
But no. Reagan had the chance to truly achieve his nuclear free dream and he whiffed at it. He refused the condition. The summit collapsed with no agreement.
Later agreements were signed. During George H W Bush’s presidency, Gorbachev, now even more desperate, essentially began unilaterally disarming both conventional and nuclear forces. Swept up by history, the US went along as well.
However, we have nuclear weapons today. Where once there were some 60,000 weapons in the two nation’s arsenal, now we’re down to 20,000. That’s definite progress, but 20,000 is still more than enough to destroy the world.
Whenever I read about the CIA, it always makes me question its value. Here once again, the CIA failed its president. Despite the fact that the CIA was spending some twenty-five percent of its budget on the Soviet Union, it was clueless. It didn’t understand Soviet motives. It certainly missed out on the Soviet massive secret biological weapon program. Whenever I read about a nation’s intelligence service, they seem to cause more damage than assistance to their leaders.
Despite Gorbachev’s efforts to stop nuclear proliferation, he doesn’t come out looking great either. The biological weapon program involved mass production and delivery of diseases like anthrax and the plague. Such weapons are not designed for military targets. Their purpose was to take out civilian populations on a mass scale. These were being actively developed simultaneously with his efforts to reduce the nuclear arsenal. They continued on even after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Although the biological program finally was shut down, the book was written in 2009. Since then, Vladimir Putin has taken on ever more dictatorial powers. Who knows what state the biological weapon program is in now?